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Cleaner air leads to more hurricanes

Less air pollution means warmer air, warmer water, and more storms.

Miami — Cleaner air in the United States and Europe is brewing more Atlantic hurricanes, a new US government study found.

A study by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has linked changes in localized air pollution around the world to both upper and lower storm activity. Studies show that a 50% reduction in polluted particles and droplets in Europe and the United States is associated with a 33% increase in the formation of Atlantic storms over the last two decades, while in the Pacific, polluted and typhoons The opposite of less is happening. It was published in Science Advances on Wednesday.

NOAA hurricane scientist Hiroyuki Murakami has performed numerous climate computer simulations to explain changes in storm activity in different parts of the globe that cannot be explained by the natural climate cycle, leading to aerosol pollution from industry and automobiles. I found the link. Breathing and hard-to-see air.

Scientists have long known that aerosol pollution cools air and sometimes reduces larger air. Impact of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels Previous studies have mentioned it as a possible increase in Atlantic storms, but Murakami realized that it was a factor around the world and a more direct connection.

Need a hurricane Hot water — Warmed by air — harmed by fuel and by wind shear. Wind shear changes with upper winds that can decapitate the top of the storm. According to Murakami, the cleaner air in the Atlantic Ocean and the cleaner air in the Pacific Ocean due to pollution in China and India are confusing both.

In the Atlantic Ocean, aerosol pollution peaked around 1980 and has been steadily decreasing since then. This means that the cooling that covered some of the greenhouse gas warming is gone, and sea surface temperatures are rising further, Murakami said. Moreover, the lack of cooling aerosols pushed the jet stream (a river of air that moves the weather from west to east in a jet coaster-like path) further north, reducing the shear that weakened the formation of hurricanes.

“That’s why the Atlantic Ocean went pretty crazy from the mid-’90s and was very quiet in the 70’s and 80’s,” said Jim Kossin of the climate and hurricane scientist risk company The Climate Service. He wasn’t part of his work, but said it made sense. Aerosol pollution “given a break for many in the 70’s and 80’s, but we are now paying for it.”

There are other major factors in the activity of tropical cyclones, where the La Niña and El Nino phenomena (natural fluctuations in equatorial Pacific temperatures that change the world’s climate) are large. Murakami said there is another natural long-term climate change, as well as anthropogenic climate change due to greenhouse gases that grow as the reduction in aerosol pollution leveled off.

Greenhouse gas climate change is expected to slightly reduce the total number of storms, but will increase the number and intensity of storms. The most intense hurricanes, moistening them Storm surge floods will increase, Murakami, Kossin, and other scientists said.

Aerosol cooling is probably half to one-third less than greenhouse gas warming, but it is about twice as effective in reducing tropical cyclone intensity as it increases tropical cyclone intensity. There is, said Adam Sobel, a climate scientist at the University of Columbia. study. As aerosol pollution remains at low levels in the Atlantic Ocean and greenhouse gas emissions increase, the impact of climate change on storms will increase and become more pronounced in the future, Murakami said.

In the Pacific Ocean, aerosol pollution from Asian countries increased by 50% between 1980 and 2010 and is now beginning to decline. According to Murakami, the formation of tropical cyclones from 2001 to 2020 is 14% less than from 1980 to 2000.

Murakami also found a slightly different correlation towards the south. The reduction of aerosol pollution in Europe and the United States has changed the world’s atmospheric patterns to mean a reduction in storms in the Southern Hemisphere around Australia.

But just as more hurricanes can be a problem in the Atlantic, death from extra storms is less than seven million a year in the world dying from air pollution, Washington is studying health. Christie Shrimp, a professor of public health at the University, said climate and extreme weather.

“Air pollution is a major killer, so it’s important to reduce emissions regardless of the number of cyclones,” said Ebi, who did not participate in the study.

Cleaner air leads to more hurricanes

Source link Cleaner air leads to more hurricanes

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