Despite the surge in inflation, the wave of employment could have continued all year round in the face of yet another shock of Russia’s war with Ukraine.
Against the pandemic and supply chain turmoil, the US economy has created more than 400,000 jobs each month for almost a year. This was a fierce victory at a very uncertain time.
And despite the surge in inflation, the wave of employment could have continued last month in the face of yet another shock. Russia’s war in Ukraine has destabilized the economic outlook and pushed gasoline prices to painful levels.
Economists surveyed by data firm FactSet predict that a March Labor Ministry employment report shows that employers have added 478,000 jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped from 3.8% to 3.7%. .. This is the lowest unemployment rate since it reached 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years, just before the pandemic occurred two years ago.
The government will issue a March Employment Report at 8:30 EST on Friday.
“War in Ukraine, rising economic uncertainty and rising energy prices could slow employment in March moderately,” said Daniel Jao, senior economist at Jobs website Grassdoor. I am. “But employer demand remains strong and should maintain a healthy level of employment.”
The booming U.S. employment market wiped out 22 million jobs in March and April 2020 as companies closed or shortened their time and Americans stayed home to avoid infection. It reflects a strong recovery from the short but catastrophic coronavirus recession.
However, the recovery was quick. Many factories, warehouses, because U.S. consumers spent so fast, supported by generous federal aid, savings accumulated during pandemics, and ultra-low borrowing rates designed by the Federal Reserve. Shipping companies and ports are not keeping up with customer demand. The supply chain is groaning and pushing up prices.
As the pandemic eased, consumers have expanded their spending not only on commodities, but also on services such as healthcare, travel and entertainment that they have long avoided during the worst pandemics. result: Inflation rate remains at its highest level in 40 yearsIt is causing difficulties for many low-income households facing a surge in essentials such as food, gasoline and rent.
It is unclear if the economy will be able to sustain last year’s momentum. Government bailout checks are gone.Federal Reserve Board Benchmark short-term interest rates raised Two weeks ago, we will continue to raise it well next year. These rate hikes will result in more expensive loans for many consumers and businesses.
Inflation has also reduced consumer purchasing power. Hourly wage, adjusted for higher consumer prices, February decreased by 2.6% from the previous year. — Inflation has surpassed year-on-year wage increases for 11 consecutive months. According to AAA, the average price of gasoline is $ 4.23 a gallon, a dazzling increase of 47% from a year ago.
Pressured by inflation, some consumers are saving on their spending.The Commerce Department reported on Thursday: February personal consumption increased by only 0.2%% — And inflation-adjusted down 0.4% — down from a 2.7% increase in January.
Still, the employment market is in a hurry ahead.Posted employer 11.3 million positions close to record During February. Nearly 4.4 million Americans have quit their jobs. This is a sign of confidence that you can find something better.
“The labor market is still very tight,” said Karen Fichuk, CEO of dispatching company Randstad North America, saying the United States currently has a record 1.7 jobs for all unemployed. ..
Still, with so many jobs lost in 2020, the economy was still shy to more than two million people just before the pandemic. Over the past year, employers have added an average of 556,000 jobs per month. At that pace-there is no guarantee that it will continue-the country will recover all the work lost in the pandemic by June. (This does not include all of the additional employment that would have been made in the last two years under normal circumstances.)
Brighter work prospects are people in the workforce who have been on the sidelines due to health concerns, difficulty finding or providing day care, generous unemployment benefits that are currently out of date, or other reasons. Is starting to be pulled back to.
Over the past year, 3.6 million people have joined the US workforce. That is, they currently have or are looking for a job. However, their rank is still nearly 600,000 short of where they stood in February 2020, just before the pandemic crashed into the economy.
March Employment Report: Economists expect to add nearly 500,000 jobs
Source link March Employment Report: Economists expect to add nearly 500,000 jobs