The US job market is lagging behind, but catching up faster than it first appears.
The US economy is bigger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic began. The stock market is higher. However, compared to the end of 2019, October employment was 3.6 million less.
Bridging that gap is an important factor in when and how the Federal Reserve focuses on raising prices. Inflation is testing the central bank’s patience with US businesses and workers.
The latest evidence comes on Friday of the week prior to the release of the job report in November. Investors and economists expect hundreds of thousands of people to return to the employment market for another major employment month. The forecast is for about 500,000 new jobs. As a result, the cumulative total for two months will be close to 1 million. This is the best two-month rebound before the COVID-19 Delta strain began to circulate in the summer. It slowed the growth of work and provided another reminder of how the job market is related to germs.
But maybe not so many. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will continue to revise the data for two months after the headline statistics are released. Between June and September, 626,000 more jobs were added than originally included in the monthly release. This was first reported by The Washington Post and confirmed by government data. The August revision alone, which added about 250,000 more jobs than originally reported, is the largest on record.
The Fed’s dual mission of full employment and stable prices is once again proven to be a delicate balance. Banks accelerate their response by rising interest rates as strong inflation can settle well beyond energy and food prices and the strength of the job market looks more sustainable in the second and third looks. Pressure is applied.
On February 4, 2021, a “Help Wanted” sign was posted in front of a company in Miami.
Financial journalist Tom Hudson hosts the “Sunshine Economy” at WLRN-FM in Miami and is Vice President of News. He is a former co-anchor and editor-in-chief of the Nightly Business Report on public television. Follow him on Twitter @ HudsonsView.
Why Revised History Is Important in the Employment Market
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