Three weeks before Election Day, voter interest in the midterm elections reached a record high, with a majority of registered voters saying the election was “more important” than past midterm elections.
Additionally, nearly 80% of Democrats and Republicans believe the political opposition poses a threat and, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it.
And two-thirds of trusted Democrat and Republican voters say they would support their party’s political candidate, even if that person has moral failures that don’t align with their values. .
These are some of the brand new national key findings. NBC News pollwhich also points to a competitive contest in November, showing positive signs for both major parties.
For Democrats, President Joe Biden’s approval rating has stabilized at 45%. Congressional approval ratings continue to be relatively even (his 47% of registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, compared to his 46% who want Republicans to take the lead). ). And for the third year in a row, “threats to democracy” is voters’ number one topic in his NBC News polls.
For Republicans, Biden’s support among independents and swing state voters in their 30s and early 40s is a positive sign. That the Republican Party once again holds a feverish dominance. Republicans, while well within the margin of error of the survey, lead Congressional approval among the likely minority set of voters (48% to 47%).
But beyond the number of horse races and high interest in the upcoming election, what stands out in the NBC News poll is the ultra-high rate of democratic and republican voters when asked if they want to send one message on the ballot. Partisan anger.
“Tell Biden to step down,” said a male Republican respondent from Missouri.
“Save this country,” replied a Republican woman from New York.
“Democracy is in danger,” replied a Democrat from Massachusetts.
‘Don’t mess with reproductive rights,’ said California Democrat woman
Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research Associates who conducted the survey with Republican Bill McInturff and his team in Public Opinion Strategies, said, “I know many voters will vote with anger. I’m here.
“I don’t know which side is more angry,” Horwitt said.
A poll found that 47% of registered voters want Democrats to control Congress, and 46% want a Republican-controlled Congress.
Democrats are black voters (74% to 13% prefer Democratic control of Congress), 18 to 34 years old (60% to 30%), Latinos (57% to 30%), and women enjoys some of the greatest advantages among (50%-43%).
Republicans dominate white voters (55%-40%), non-college white voters (61%-33%), and men (49%-43%).
And political parties are tied 40% to 40% among independents.
Of those voters identified as “probable voters” in NBC News polls (voters with high voting interest or high modeled voter turnout), 48% voted for a Republican-controlled Congress. preference, 47% want a Democrat-controlled Congress. .
This is the first time the poll has measured voter likelihood.
The ‘eye popper’ of electoral interest
The poll also found that 70% of all registered voters expressed high interest in the upcoming election (“9” or “10” on a 10-point scale). Time point.
Republican pollster McInturff said it would be “amazing” if the question showed higher numbers today than it did in 2018, when the midterm elections set record voter turnout. rice field.
However, by party, 78% of Republicans are highly interested in the midterm elections, compared to 69% of Democrats.
Its 9-point GOP frenzy edge is up from September (when it was R+3) and August (when it was R+2).
Additionally, 57% of all voters say this November’s parliamentary elections are more important than past midterm elections. This is higher than polls in 2018 (52%) or 2010 (44%).
Thirty-seven percent say it’s as important as past midterm elections, and 6% say it’s less important.
Again, Republicans are expressing more importance about the upcoming midterm elections – 68% of them say the election is more important to them, compared to 53% of Democrats .
Biden’s approval, country direction remains stable
The poll found 45% of registered voters approved of President Biden’s overall performance and 52% disapproved, unchanged from September.
But Biden’s job ratings are in the same realm as other recent presidents whose party lost control of at least one house in Congress in the first midterm elections.
An NBC News/WSJ poll in October 2010 put Barack Obama’s approval rating at 45% (when Democrats lost 63 seats in that midterm election). And he had Donald Trump’s approval rating at his 46% in early November (when Republicans lost his 40 seats in the House).
Looking at key demographic groups, Biden’s highest ratings were among black voters (70% approval), urban dwellers (61%), voters ages 18 to 34 (54%), and Latinos ( 51%).
But among voters in battleground states (41%), suburban women (40%) and independents (37%), his approval ratings are significantly lower.
71% of voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 20% say it’s on the right track.
It’s the sixth time in the past seven NBC News polls that the wrong track has exceeded 70%.
“This is a very tough number for Democrats, a number they’ve had for months,” said McInturff, a Republican pollster.
And about the country’s economy, 20% say it will get better over the next year, 26% say it will stay roughly the same, and 50% say it will get worse.
This 50% said the economy would deteriorate over the next 12 months, the highest number for this question since 1994.
An NBC News poll shows how polarized voters are ahead of the midterm elections.
81% of Democrats say they believe the Republican agenda is a threat and, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it.
And about the same percentage of Republicans (79%) believe the same about the Democratic agenda.
“It looks like voters no longer want a ‘deal with America,’ they want a divorce,” Democratic pollster Horwitt said.
Moreover, when asked by Republican voters who prefer Republican control of Congress whether it became clear that the Republican candidate they supported had committed moral failures in business, marriage, or personal life, 67% of those voters said they would still vote Republican. Republican candidate.
In contrast, a combined 22% said they would skip the race and vote for a Democratic or third-party candidate.
When asked the same question to Democratic voters who prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, 63% said they would still vote for the Democratic candidate, while 26% said they would not vote. Party.
Other poll findings
- 9% of registered voters say they have already voted in the midterm elections, 40% say they plan to vote early (either by mail or in person before the deadline), and 47% say they will vote at a polling place on Election Day. I was.
- 77% said they were confident their votes would be counted early, while 19% said they were not.
- And while 60% of all voters say President Biden legally won in 2020, 33% (65% of Republicans) said he didn’t legally win.
of NBC News poll Conducted Oct. 14-18 with 1,000 registered voters, 750 of whom were contacted by mobile phone.
The margin of error for the 797 voters identified as potential voters is plus or minus 3.47 percentage points.
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/anger-minds-nbc-news-poll-finds-sky-high-interest-polarization-ahead-m-rcna53512 NBC News Poll Shows Very High Interest and Polarization Heading into Midterm Elections