Ohio

Tropical Storm Idalia: Spaghetti models, path

Tropical Storm Idalia forms, hurricane watches issued for parts of Florida

Hey there everybody. West two meteorologist Eric Burress here wanted to update you just minutes after the 11 o’clock advisory Hurricane Center put out another update this time upgrading the storm system. Let me show you why. This is *** look at the live data coming in from the hurricane hunters and particularly if you look at that center of your screen there. This is the wind graph with live data coming off of the storms. Uh, the aircraft’s sensors and they found some tropical storm force winds and certainly we had the circulation sufficient enough. So there you go. Now, as of 11 15, we have tropical storm Adalia winds are at 40 miles an hour expected to get stronger. You can see that circulation swirling there, uh, just off the eastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Ok. We are reviewing data from Hurricane Hunter aircraft, both the NOAA P three Orion and, uh, the Air Force WC 1 30 J aircraft. Um, but essentially we’re finding *** developing system. So here’s *** look at the very latest cone from the National Hurricane Center this afternoon tomorrow. It doesn’t move much forward, but little by little, it gets stronger. Notice 8 a.m. on Tuesday morning. Ok. Winds are at 70 miles an hour knocking on the door of hurricane intensity. By Tuesday evening, we have *** category one hurricane and then right in here you notice we’re right at the big bend as *** category one hurricane. Now, one thing I want to point out here is that the forecast cone at 11 a.m. did shift just *** little to the right. The reason is overnight, last night into this morning, we noticed the storm kind of retrograding or trying to kind of find another place perhaps *** little more, um, opportunistic for *** center of circulation and it kind of shifted *** little further south. That’s important because looking down the line that’s going to play into the overall motion of the storm, let me show you the atmosphere and it’ll, it’ll explain everything for you. This is *** very similar to what we saw, um, with storms like Charlie and Ian, I’m not saying it’s going to southwest Florida, but rather notice there’s the area of low pressure on the bottom of the screen, notice the top of the screen, there’s *** front and they’re basically going to knock into each other. But the timing will be everything in terms of where Adalia ends up making that right turn. And for right now, most of the guidance, most of the computer models show the Big Bend as kind of that area to watch. And that’s why the Hurricane center has highlighted the big bend as their forecast points. Right. Here’s *** look at the computer forecast models and you can see big bend over to about the Sun Coast Tampa Bay area. My greatest concern, if I’m honest with you is that this would go and stay just off the shoreline coming into the big bend, but just off the shoreline piling water up in Tampa Bay and in dating uh communities uh right along the water there in flooding places like old Tampa. Um Remember we’re getting toward king tide cycle here over the next couple of days. So you add that on top of *** developing storm surge that’s trapped in Tampa Bay and that could be *** considerable concern uh for our friends out that direction. So that’s just kind of one little piece of the puzzle that we’ll have to watch. So when we look at things, ok. Today, continue to think about the possibility of some sort of *** tropical system impacting us tomorrow as the forecast confidence grows higher as we get recon data into computer models may need to start working that hurricane kit Tuesday morning, we would be finishing any kind of preps that we would need mainly just loose articles we’re not talking about um our beachside spots needing to shut her up or anything like this. This would be more of *** western and northwestern area. So Sumpter Lake Marion counties would be getting the more impactful conditions. And then Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is when the storm arrives. So again, just so we’re all on the same page. We now have tropical storm Idalia, which is expected to get even stronger in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming *** hurricane before making landfall anywhere from the Panhandle of Florida through the Big Bend. Stay with West Two for updates. Meteorologist Marquis Meta and Cam Tran will be in this evening and we’ll have the very latest updates then take care.

Tropical Storm Idalia forms, hurricane watches issued for parts of Florida

Tropical Storm Idalia formed Sunday and is expected to approach Florida as a hurricane this week. As of the Sunday evening update, Idalia was about 145 miles from the western tip of Cuba. The system had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm was stationary.”A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected to begin on Monday, bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday night. Idalia will then continue on a northward or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday,” NHC said. “Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Idalia is likely to be near or at major hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.”Earlier computer models showed Idalia tracking over the panhandle, but on Sunday the path had moved closer to Central Florida. Rain and wind could impact much of the state. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia will see 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches.Sister station WESH’s Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi says the timing for landfall appears to be late Tuesday into Wednesday. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

  • Tropical Storm Idalia formed Sunday and is expected to approach Florida as a hurricane this week.

As of the Sunday evening update, Idalia was about 145 miles from the western tip of Cuba. The system had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm was stationary.

“A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected to begin on Monday, bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday night. Idalia will then continue on a northward or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday,” NHC said. “Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Idalia is likely to be near or at major hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.”

Earlier computer models showed Idalia tracking over the panhandle, but on Sunday the path had moved closer to Central Florida.

Rain and wind could impact much of the state. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia will see 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Sister station WESH’s Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi says the timing for landfall appears to be late Tuesday into Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

https://www.wlwt.com/article/tropical-storm-idalia/44919604 Tropical Storm Idalia: Spaghetti models, path

Related Articles

Back to top button