Cinema’s decision to quit the Democratic Party shocked Arizona’s 2024 Senate election

Washington — Senator Kirsten Cinema decision to leave the Democratic Party It’s reshaping the dynamics of the 2024 Senate election in Arizona, creating new obstacles for Democrats to retain their seats two years later.

Cinema’s announcement Friday that it would be going independent sparked outrage and an outspoken response from her Democratic critics, who vowed to fight to reclaim the seat in 2024. She intends to keep the committee seat assigned to her by the Democrats. 51-49 Maintain Senate Balance.

Cinema has yet to say if it will run for re-election as an independent, but the chances are sway racing dynamics. If she does run, it could mean a three-way battle between Republicans, Democrats, and cinema as an independent.

Despite being ideologically closer to the Democrats than the Republicans, and a constant headache for Republican leaders, Cinema said that if he garnered more votes from Democratic-leaning voters, the Republican nominee would be in 2024. It could pave the way for you to win the year.

“I’m not surprised. But I’m still incredibly disappointed that she’s still in such bad shape,” said Arizona Democratic Party Vice Chairman Michael Surgoczki. Cinema said it had “no relationship or contact with Parties for many months” and did not inform them prior to her decision.

“We’re going to rock this race” for 2024, he said. “She is deliberately trying to make it difficult for Democrats in Arizona.”

And if Arizona attacks Arizona for two years and splits a successful coalition government, it could make it harder for Arizona to win the presidency again in two years, he said. added. “It makes things harder for Joe Biden, but I don’t think she cares at all.”

Cinema’s decision came at a time when her approval ratings among Arizona Democratic voters plummeted, raising questions about her ability to win re-nomination. poll According to Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research in September, cinema’s favorable rating among Arizona Democrats was 37%. Her approval ratings were 36% among Republicans and 41% among independents. Statewide, she received 37% favorable ratings and 54% unfavorable ratings.

A long and nasty divorce between cinema and the Democratic Party, in early 2021 the first senator angered liberal activists by flashing his playful thumb during a vote to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour. escalated at times. Her support for Trump tax cuts forced Biden to scale back her agenda. his major party bill.

national political party condemned Cinema last year after opposing changes to Senate rules that would pass major voting rights legislation.

“She’s trying to eliminate a primary she knew she’s going to lose.” there is

cinema trial balloon

Cinema’s greatest influence over her party is that she may want a Republican victory more than they want. , her move could be a test balloon of whether she can gather enough support to have a meaningful chance of winning as an independent.

write in Arizona RepublicCinema called the two-party system a “wrong choice” for her state.

“When I ran for the House and Senate, I promised the people of Arizona something different,” the senator wrote.pledged independence Work with anyone to achieve lasting results. I promised myself not to demonize or vilify those with whom I disagree and not get distracted by political drama. “

Arizona Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who represented Phoenix and was already considering trying out cinema in 2024, said the senator is working on it for himself.

“We need a senator who will give the people of Arizona an edge over Big Pharma and Wall Street bankers. And at a time when our country needs leadership most, Arizona deserves to have a voice that won’t back down in the face of struggle,” Gallego said in a statement after Cinema’s announcement. “Unfortunately, Senator Cinema once again puts his own interests ahead of getting things done for the people of Arizona.”

Former Senate Republican campaign operative Matt Whitlock responded on Twitter: “Ruben is furious because he knows he will come third in a three-way primary.”

The cinema move drew cheers from other Republicans. Kari Lake, Election Denier Supporting Donald Trumpnarrowly losing her bid for governor of Arizona in 2022. “Great news!” she said. murmured.

Cinema spokesperson Hannah Hurley did not comment Friday on the senator’s 2024 plans, nor did she respond to suggestions that an independent candidacy could make her a spoiler and help the Republican Party. made clear that it was not focused on the politics of the campaign,” Hurley said.

Arizona Republican Voter Registration Edge

Arizona was once a stronghold of the Republican Party and has seen consecutive Democratic victories in federal elections. Cinema won his 2018 Senate election, and Arizona Democratic Senator Mark Kelly won his two elections in 2020 and 2022. President Joe Biden 2020.

Republicans retain voter registration advantages in the states, according to the Secretary of State. officemaking independents and potentially moderate Republicans critical to the Democratic Party’s ability to win statewide. NBC News Exit Polls It shows Kerry winning 9% of Republicans with a 16-point lead over independents. In 2020, Biden beat independents by 13 points to her 6% in the Republican Party.

Still, Kerry’s 5-point win last month gave the state party confidence it could win alongside mainstream Democratic candidates.

Slugocki has denied the possibility of Democrats supporting and supporting independent cinema to block Republicans, vowing that Democrats will provide their own candidates.

“There is every intention of the Arizona Democratic Party running a true Democratic Party in 2024,” he said, adding that he supports Gallego.

Political groups that have laid the groundwork to venture into cinema in two years said her move proves they were right. Cinema PAC activist Emily Kirkland said: “Come on, let’s beat her in her general election as a true Democrat.”

Some Democrats doubt that she will actually run as an independent.

“People are still speculating whether or not she will run,” Slogokki said. “Some speculate that she won’t run and she’ll be a corporate lobbyist.”